PV, Mit & Jeff
We pulled the five most important stories shaping Canadian real estate this week and broke down what they mean for your capital. National asking rents just hit a 35 month low. TD scrapped its entire housing outlook. And the Bank of Canada is 16 days from its next rate decision. Want to talk about what it means for your portfolio?
Markets freeze. Forecasts get slashed. Rate decisions get debated. And every month, on the 15th, the rent cheques clear.
That is how far TD swung its 2026 home sales forecast: from +9.3% in December to -1.8% today. An 11 point reversal in three months. When Canada's largest bank moves that fast, it tells you the housing market has shifted beneath people's feet. Fewer buyers means more renters. More renters means more demand for the exact buildings we own.
In December, TD forecast home sales would rise 9.3% and prices would climb 4.1% in 2026. That forecast is gone. TD now expects sales to fall 1.8% and prices to slip 0.3% nationally. Ontario and B.C. got the sharpest downgrades after first quarter sales collapsed. Buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity on tariffs, jobs, and affordability. TD does forecast a rebound in 2027 with sales jumping 9.6%. Our take: When buyers freeze, renters stay. That is direct demand for apartment buildings. The longer the ownership market stalls, the stronger the case for purpose built rental becomes.
Average asking rents fell for the 18th consecutive month, dropping 5.3% year over year to $2,008 according to Rentals.ca. Calgary led the decline at 5%, followed by Toronto at 4.7%. The biggest drops are in new luxury condo rentals where vacancy now exceeds 6% in Toronto. Population caps on international students and temporary workers are reducing demand in the biggest cities. Our take: Read the fine print. The headlines are about luxury condos and overbuilt urban markets. Our buildings are workforce housing in Southwestern Ontario. Different product, different tenant, different fundamentals. Our vacancy sits well below the national average and our rents are significantly more affordable than Toronto's.
London, Ontario · CMHC Financing + GST Rebate Eligible
Government Grants + De-Risked Capital Stack
Targeted Returns: 24% to 27% Annualized
After a full year of U.S. tariffs, Canada's early resilience is giving way to a stalled labour market. Goods producing sectors have collectively lost 34,200 positions year over year. Services offset with 85,900 new jobs, but the momentum is fading. The good news: Canadian businesses re-routed $11 billion in exports to 27 new trading partners, recovering much of the $18.5B lost to the U.S. Steel, aluminum, auto, and lumber remain the hardest hit sectors. Our take: Tariffs slow construction and raise costs for builders. That means fewer new buildings competing with the ones we already own. And job uncertainty keeps people renting, not buying. Both dynamics favour existing apartment landlords.
Toronto resales rose 1.4% month over month in March, the first monthly increase in five months. Hamilton and Saskatoon also saw upticks. But home values continued falling in B.C., Alberta, and Ontario, while rising in Quebec, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada. Buyer confidence remains weak as trade war uncertainty, a tough job market, and strained affordability keep many sidelined. Our take: A two speed market. Some cities are stabilizing, others still correcting. In both scenarios, renting remains the path of least resistance for most Canadians. That is demand we collect on the 15th of every month.
Cash-Flowing Apartment Buildings · Southwestern Ontario
Targeted Total Return: ~15%
Distributions: 7% Annualized, Paid Monthly
The overnight rate sits at 2.25%. Canada's economy shrank 0.6% in Q4 2025, and GDP growth is forecast at just 1.2% for 2026 according to Deloitte. The Bank of Canada's next decision lands April 29. A cut remains unlikely given the recent inflation spike driven by elevated oil prices, but the softening economy means markets are watching closely. Over one million mortgages renew this year, many locked in below 2% during the pandemic, facing 15 to 20% higher payments. Our take: Cut or hold, our 7% distribution does not change. But mortgage renewal shock will push more Canadians into renting. That is a structural tailwind for apartment owners that lasts years, not quarters.
"I owned two rental properties for 8 years. By the end I was exhausted. Tenant issues, maintenance calls, mortgage stress. I sold both and moved the capital into FCPRET. Same exposure to real estate, similar returns, zero involvement. Monthly distributions show up like clockwork. Best financial decision I have made in the last decade."
Tue, Apr 15: FCPRET monthly distribution lands. Like clockwork.
Apr 29: Bank of Canada rate decision. GDP shrank last quarter, but oil driven inflation likely keeps rates on hold.
Apr 30: FCPRET closing. 17 days to lock in today's unit price before the next price change.
Got a question about the fund, the portfolio, distributions, or what any of these headlines mean for your capital? Reply to this email. We answer the best questions every Thursday. Nothing is off limits.
Catch the latest from PV, Mit, and Jeff. Portfolio updates, new unit creation at our London buildings, and what the April 30 closing means for investors looking to lock in before the next unit price change.
To your success,
PV, Mit & Jeff
P.S. TD says buyers are frozen. Rents are falling in the luxury segment. The economy shrank last quarter. Through all of it, FCPRET has not missed a single monthly distribution. If you have been watching from the sidelines, the April 30 closing is 17 days away. Just reply to this email and say "interested" and we will set everything up for you.
