PV, Mit & Jeff
CMHC just released its 2026 outlook: GDP growth of 0.7%, housing starts falling to 247,000 units, and a formal flag for a possible recession tied to trade policy. Headlines are already running with it. Meanwhile, FCPRET investors collected the same 7% annualized distribution they collect every single month. That's not luck. That's structure
I was watching BNN and every headline was about tariffs and a slowdown. I checked my FCPRET account and my March distribution had already deposited. That contrast says everything. The news is chaos, but our rent cheques keep coming.
Here's the pattern that keeps repeating: every time the economy slows, the housing supply problem gets worse. Developers pull back. Starts decline. But rental demand doesn't shrink in a recession. It grows. People who can't buy, rent. People who downsize, rent. The math only moves in one direction for well-positioned apartment portfolios. Recessions don't reduce rental demand. They concentrate it.
Cash-Flowing Apartment Buildings · Southwestern Ontario
Targeted Total Return: ~15%
Distributions: 7% Annualized, Paid Monthly
"I was watching BNN and every headline was about tariffs and a slowdown. I checked my FCPRET account and my March distribution had already deposited. That contrast says everything. The news is chaos, but our rent cheques keep coming."
The word "recession" gets people nervous. But when you look at what actually happens to rental housing during a slowdown, the picture is different from what you'd expect. CMHC is projecting housing starts to fall to 247,000 this year, down from 259,000. That means fewer new units entering the market at a time when Canada still needs millions to close the deficit.
Add tariffs on steel, aluminum, and building materials to the mix, and construction economics get even tighter. The national average home price is sitting at $652,941, down 2.6% year-over-year. Homeownership keeps getting further out of reach for most Canadians, which means rental demand stays strong. FCPRET's vacancy rate sits under 2% while the national average has climbed to 3.1%. Our tenants aren't going anywhere.
For investors looking for equity creation alongside income, the Development Fund takes this thesis further. Wellington Tower is an $84 million purpose-built rental project backed by CMHC financing and government grants, targeting 24% to 27% annualized returns over a 4-year horizon. When fewer developers can afford to build, the projects that do get built become more valuable. That's the opportunity in front of us.
Purpose-Built Rentals · Build-to-Core, 4-Year Horizon
CMHC Financing + Government Grants (De-Risked)
Targeted Returns: 24% to 27% Annualized
Bank of Canada's next rate decision is April 16. Markets are pricing in another hold, but if tariff uncertainty deepens, the calculus could shift. We're watching how construction activity responds to the CMHC outlook this quarter. Fewer starts now means tighter supply for years to come.
Economic cycles come and go. What stays constant is that people need a place to live. Two vehicles. One thesis. Monthly income from cash-flowing apartments through FCPRET, or equity creation through ground-up development with Wellington Tower. While economists debate whether it's a recession or a slowdown, our investors are collecting rent.
If the headlines have you rethinking where your capital is sitting, that instinct is worth following.
To your success,
PV, Mit & Jeff
P.S. CMHC says housing starts are going down. Tariffs are pushing construction costs up. The supply gap is only getting wider. That's exactly the environment where cash-flowing apartment buildings and CMHC-backed development projects do their best work. If you've been thinking about it, this is the time. Just reply to this email and say "interested" and we'll set everything up for you.
By the Numbers
