PV, Mit & Jeff
CREA released its latest numbers this morning. Canada's national benchmark home price dropped to $661,100, down 4.8% year over year. Ontario is down 6.4%. BC is down too. Sales are sluggish. Inventory is building up. That's the headline. Here's the one that matters more: CMHC is now forecasting housing starts to decline through 2028. Fewer homes getting built means tighter rental supply in the years ahead. Here's why falling prices are actually good news for existing landlords
Every cancelled project is future supply that won't exist. If you already own the buildings, the math just got better.
The market sees falling prices and panics. We see falling prices and ask: what happens to new construction when developers can't make the math work? They stop building. And every project that doesn't get started today is future rental supply that won't exist in 2028, 2029, or 2030. If you already own the buildings, that's not a problem. It's a moat.
Cash-Flowing Apartment Buildings · Southwestern Ontario
Targeted Total Return: ~15%
Distributions: 7% Annualized, Paid Monthly
Here's the chain reaction nobody is talking about. Home prices fall. Pre-construction sales dry up. Developers can't secure financing. Projects get shelved. CMHC is forecasting starts to drop from 259,000 in 2025 to 223,000 by 2027, with further declines through 2028. Condo starts in Toronto and Vancouver are getting hit the hardest, with pre-sale activity down and lenders pulling back.
That means fewer rental units coming to market in 2028, 2029, and 2030. The pipeline is thinning right now, and it takes 3 to 5 years to bring a new building online. Canada already has a structural housing deficit measured in the millions of units. A construction slowdown doesn't close that gap. It widens it. And the buildings that already exist, already cash-flowing, already full of tenants? They become more valuable with every project that gets cancelled.
FCPRET already owns the buildings. They're occupied, professionally managed, and generating monthly distributions. The construction slowdown doesn't threaten our portfolio. It strengthens it. Less future competition means stronger occupancy, stronger rent growth, and a wider moat around existing assets for years to come.
Purpose-Built Rentals · Build-to-Core, 4-Year Horizon
CMHC Financing + Government Grants (De-Risked)
Targeted Returns: 24% to 27% Annualized
"We looked at REITs, GICs, and even buying a rental property ourselves. Nothing came close to the simplicity of FCPRET. Professional management, monthly distributions, and we don't have to lift a finger. It's the best decision we've made for our portfolio."
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision tomorrow. Markets expect a hold at 2.25%. Whether they cut or hold, developers are still pulling back and existing apartments are still collecting rent. More on that tomorrow.
This week's live stream breaks down why the current trade war, rate environment, and global uncertainty are creating a once-in-a-cycle opportunity for Canadian rental housing investors.
Falling prices scare most investors. But the smart money knows what comes next: less construction, tighter supply, and stronger fundamentals for the buildings that already exist. Two vehicles. One thesis. Monthly income from essential housing through FCPRET, or equity creation through ground-up development with Wellington Tower, backed by CMHC financing while the rest of the market pulls back.
The developers who can still build right now are the ones who will own the supply everyone else needs in four years.
To your success,
PV, Mit & Jeff
P.S. Home prices down 4.8%. Construction declining through 2028. And FCPRET's distribution still hit on the 15th, same as every month. The buildings are built. The tenants are paying. The supply pipeline is thinning. If you've been thinking about getting in, the window is getting smaller. Just reply to this email and say "interested" and we'll set everything up for you.
By the Numbers
