PV, Mit & Jeff
We pulled the five most important stories shaping Canadian real estate right now and broke down what they mean for your portfolio. No fluff, no filler. Let's get into it.
I owned two rental properties for 8 years. By the end I was exhausted. Tenant issues, maintenance calls, mortgage stress. I sold them and moved the capital into FCPRET. Same exposure to real estate, similar returns, zero involvement. Best financial decision I've made in the last decade.
of new housing starts in Montreal are now purpose-built rentals. Condo presales have collapsed nationwide. The market has spoken: Canada's housing future is rental, and the investors who already own it are in pole position.
CMHC's Spring Housing Supply Report confirms what we've been saying for two years: Canada is becoming a rental nation. Housing starts rose 6% in 2025, but it was almost entirely driven by purpose-built rental apartments. Condo presales have collapsed and unsold inventory is rising. Record rental starts in Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Halifax, and Montreal. Toronto hit its second-highest rental start count ever. Our take: This is not a blip. Developers are following the capital. The condo model is broken. Purpose-built rental is the growth asset class for this decade.
The Bank of Canada kept the overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18, citing inflation risks from tariffs and rising global energy prices. Growth is coming in weaker than expected. Over one million mortgages are up for renewal in 2026, many locked in below 2% during 2021. Homeowners face a 15 to 20% jump in monthly payments. Our take: Mortgage renewal shock means fewer buyers. Fewer buyers means more renters. That's tailwind for landlords and for FCPRET.
This Wednesday, April 2, the U.S. plans to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on all trading partners, including 25% on auto imports. Steel and aluminum already face 50% tariffs. NAHB estimates tariffs are adding $17,500 to the cost of every new home, and could result in 450,000 fewer homes built by 2030. PM Carney and Trump spoke directly for the first time on March 28. Our take: Rising costs will push undercapitalized developers to the sidelines. For well-positioned operators like us, that means less competition and stronger long-term fundamentals, whether you're investing in our existing rental portfolio or our development pipeline.
Ontario now has 49,884 active resale listings, the highest level for February in more than ten years. Sales fell 8.1% year over year. Prices declined 1.5% nationally in Q4 2025. Buyers have all the leverage, but they're not buying. They're renting. The federal cuts to temporary residents (international students down 49%, TFWs down 37%) are expected to soften rental demand in Toronto and Vancouver. Our take: We operate in Southwestern Ontario, not the GTA. Our markets (London, Ingersoll, Chatham) have different fundamentals: lower rents, higher occupancy, and tenants who are staying put.
Canadian GDP was flat in January after a 0.2% contraction in Q4 2025. The Bank of Canada projects growth averaging just 1.25% over the near term. Ontario's own budget pegged provincial GDP growth at only 1.0% for 2026. Our take: Slow growth keeps rates low and keeps renters renting. People don't take on a mortgage in a sluggish economy. They stay in their apartment. That's demand stability for us.
Purpose-Built Rentals · CMHC Financing + GST Rebate Eligible
Government Grants + De-Risked Capital Stack
Targeted Returns: 24% to 27% Annualized
Wed, Apr 2: U.S. "reciprocal" tariff deadline. 25% on all auto imports takes effect. Watch for Canadian retaliation.
Fri, Apr 4: Canada employment data for March. If jobs soften, expect the BoC to cut in April.
Ongoing: Ontario HST rebate on new homes takes effect April 1. We are tracking how this impacts builder sentiment and starts data.
Cash-Flowing Apartment Buildings · Southwestern Ontario
Targeted Total Return: ~15%
Distributions: 7% Annualized, Paid Monthly
"I owned two rental properties for 8 years. By the end I was exhausted. Tenant issues, maintenance calls, mortgage stress. I sold them and moved the capital into FCPRET. Same exposure to real estate, similar returns, zero involvement. Best financial decision I've made in the last decade."
Got a question about the market, our funds, or how private real estate investing works? Reply to this email. We read every response and answer the best questions in Thursday's newsletter.
To your success,
PV, Mit & Jeff
P.S. Tomorrow we're going deep on one topic: what actually happens inside our buildings when we renovate a unit. Unit economics, before and after numbers, rent lifts. If you've ever wondered how value add real estate works in practice, don't miss it.
